Art, 14 Feb 2008
Please be careful on buying for the up move as any more credit problem announcement will cause stock markets to slide down anytime; orThe 5 strong bullets that can injure the stock market bull, bringing in the bear;
1. Downgrade of Ambac, MBIA, Financial Guaranty Insurance (FGIC) …mortgage guarantee companies, (by Fitch, or Moody or S&P rating agencies)
2. increase provision of credit card losses, (by Amex, First Cap Corp, Mastercard, Visa or the banks that are issuing these cards)
3. housing loan (prime and sub-prime) defaults (by housing loan companies, eg Freddie, Finnie Mae, banks)
4. general loans (car, personal…etc) default (by GM, Ford, Chrysler loan companies, and the banks
5. corporate loans defaults (from SIV, eg StdChart's Whistle, Fitch possible downgrading of US Airlines bonds, Moody or S&P, and banks announcement, eg Credit Suisse write-offs. Most of the banks announcements are during their quarterly reporting which has a time-table. The Fitch, Moody and S&P downgrading is hard to time as they decide as and when to announce their own assessments without a published time-table.These are all loaded bullets that are waiting to be fired anytime, though without doubt it will be fired, except the timing of the announcement is hard to assess.
Art, 14 Feb 2008
Delta Fund Investing
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